An innovative risk evaluation system estimating its own fuzzy entropy

This study presents an original mathematical model and a prototype computer decision support system for the management of natural disasters risk. The system not only estimates the degree of risk for each area under study but it evaluates itself by calculating the entropy of its output as well. The degree of risk can be very useful for the design of effective protection and prevention policy. On the other hand, the system can be considered as an intelligent one as it has the ability to offer the potential user a particular type of quality judgment for its risk output. The whole model is based on fuzzy algebra concepts and principles and the software has been developed in MS-Access. The original contribution of this paper is not only the computer system model, but also its application to the torrential risk of Greek Thrace using actual data. c © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.